The heavy answers continue to roll into Ukraine. The recent lull in hostilities presented the Russian irregular forces a chance to regroup and be resupplied by their Russian sponsors.
Comparisons between Hitler and Putin run rampant on the social media, likening Crimea and E. Ukraine to the Sudetenland. However hyperbolic the rhetoric, it is actually the case that the comparison is apt.
I have conversed with people in Ukraine on social media. They are frustrated and angry that little help comes their way from the US. However, I believe that definite resolve will be shown soon.
Ukraine has the right to self defense. Article 51 if the UN charter applies fully, here. If Poroshenko were to go so far add to request American military assistance, boots on the ground, the whole nine yards, that invitation would be valid.
Russia has invaded a sovereign nation that posed no imminent threat to Russian security. This is a fact. It is also the fact that Crimea has a large Russian population, and if a fair and open monitored referendum was held, it actually would very likely come out in Russia's favor.
Why does the Kremlin go this route? Russia believes that international law is stacked against them: a fixed game run by the West. The Kremlin cannot conceive of a world where the United States is not an adversary, so they plan and act accordingly. They want to grab Ukraine and shake the Maidan movement out of the country and install Yanukovich 2.0.
Ukraine needs strong support. They have the will, they know the terrain, but it is a hugely difficult effort. They face a hoodlum neighbor with considerable resources, whose leaders have a particular plan for them, and this democracy/Europe-facing Ukraine does not fit into that plan. Moreover, the Kremlin appears to be more than willing enough to pour troops into Ukraine until their objective is met.
Ukraine is low on capital, low on modern war materiel. They are going into debt to save themselves from being consumed by Russia. Putin seems to believe that the Eurasian Empire is Russia's manifest destiny, and he is putting his shoulder into realizing it. The Kremlin is sponsoring European candidates that are aligned with their grand scheme.
But, Eurasianism is thwarted by this realignment of Ukraine. The Ukrainian man in the street has no use for the glorious Eurasian enterprise.
I don't know. If I were in Putin's place, I probably would act to ensure my plan for a giant trade network throughout Eurasia. A new "silk road" might well revitalize my nation. But: would my first option be the application of military force? No. It would be an appeal to the international community to understand that Ukraine does have some existing obligations regardless of the gov't in place. While it might take a while, legitimate debts and contacts would be honored.
But then, again, if I were Putin, I might know that those contracts are designed to funnel money into particular pockets, for 'reuse' towards particular projects. Appealing to legal authorities invites a legalistic examination of the matter, which might expose more than would be to my advantage. So, Putin and advisors conclude: a hammer is in order.
This is only speculation with a dash of the benefit of a doubt, but in any event this node in our shared timeline lies on the vector that points to more, not less, war.
At the end of the day, the Ukrainian people are people, they have human rights per the universal code thereof. They have stood up for these rights, which disturbed the plans of their giant neighbor: truly a David and Goliath story. Without stones in their slings, they're sucked back into the New Dark Age of the Russia-led Eurasian Empire.
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